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Un-predictions for 2007 3 January, 2007

Posted by Jay Ball in clean tech, hardware, open source, search, software.

Happy new year, I hope Santa brought you everything you wished for (obviously if you opted for peace on Earth you may have been somewhat disappointed).

It’s customary at this time of year to make predictions for the 12 months ahead. Of course, this is largely an exercise in ensuring you look pretty stupid at the end of the year. (It’s almost as if, simply by predicting the future, you can guarantee that it won’t come to pass.) So with that in mind, and not wanting to pass up the opportunity of looking stupid, here are mine:

  • I’ll start on safe ground. Disenchantment with the Windows OS (its cost, security problems, new licensing issues etc) will continue a pace. Vista won’t live up to the Longhorn vision seen here (I love the “Coming October 2003” line). Of course, loads of people will still buy it and it will a boon for PC and memory upgrade vendors.
  • As a result, PCs and laptops preloaded just with Linux (and a shed-load of open source apps) will begin to take off, probably with a new brand / sub-brand beginning to make a name for themselves by specialising in this area.
  • HD DVD will win the format war. Yes it’s early days but I think Blu-ray will suffer from Sony’s proprietary/lock in tendencies despite being technically superior (funny how every article about this brings up the spectre of Betamax).
  • The Google brand image will wobble as it struggles to live up to the “don’t be evil” promise all while trying to utterly dominate the market. (As an aside, while people point to this mantra as something highly aspirational, I can’t help thinking that not being evil is the very least a brand can promise.) The Google OS and Google Office however will take off big time (see the Windows prediction above).
  • Social search (eg Wink and StumbleUpon) will become ever more appealing to many people who already trust their networks more than any old school search engine.
  • Clean tech will be huge with the largest area being energy production. The big money will go into large national-scale projects but micro generation will become a growing political issue in a “let’s stick it to those blackmailing us over oil” kind of way.
  • Last but not least, I will get my running time down to a regular 9min mile pace (yeah right).

Check back in a year for a good laugh at my expense. In the meantime, have a wonderful 2007.



1. A more human search « B1 Blog - 6 August, 2007

[…] 6 August, 2007 Posted by Jay Ball in search. trackback Way back at the beginning of the year in my un-predictions, I suggested that: Social search (eg Wink and StumbleUpon) will become ever more appealing to many […]

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